Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-17 0.150424 0.177972 0.210280 0.251263 0.302292 0.364288 0.446161
2025-08-24 0.116612 0.150121 0.193739 0.255734 0.343341 0.465470 0.653669
2025-08-31 0.093247 0.128882 0.179605 0.259370 0.386091 0.587856 0.951708
2025-09-07 0.076734 0.112996 0.168972 0.265750 0.438047 0.752008 1.422146
2025-09-14 0.064067 0.099856 0.159334 0.271740 0.495321 0.962599 2.158472
2025-09-21 0.052668 0.086146 0.145437 0.266687 0.533641 1.169713 3.126889
2025-09-28 0.040484 0.068490 0.120372 0.232705 0.499447 1.202695 3.717270
2025-10-05 0.035240 0.062169 0.114959 0.237939 0.560581 1.537635 5.883630
2025-10-12 0.031590 0.058069 0.112977 0.250800 0.652353 2.068770 10.236009
2025-10-19 0.028160 0.053686 0.109348 0.258964 0.740408 2.716565 17.810261
2025-10-26 0.025311 0.049919 0.106185 0.267721 0.841396 3.598914 32.665198
2025-11-02 0.022225 0.045024 0.099166 0.263170 0.895780 4.388541 54.687992
2025-11-09 0.019132 0.039677 0.090118 0.250434 0.917536 5.123231 89.335287
2025-11-16 0.017244 0.036776 0.086696 0.254985 1.025459 6.813391 196.427278
2025-11-23 0.015591 0.034124 0.083308 0.258689 1.140597 9.086958 482.668667
2025-11-30 0.014245 0.031981 0.080827 0.265118 1.286362 12.522196 1499.691382
2025-12-07 0.013061 0.030026 0.078415 0.271149 1.446936 17.411856 6219.430157
2025-12-14 0.011770 0.027557 0.073825 0.266155 1.534425 22.165878 27626.031291
2025-12-21 0.010027 0.023597 0.063672 0.232286 1.369375 20.891761 41163.362750
2025-12-28 0.009321 0.022378 0.062113 0.237537 1.532678 29.439876 893885.761965
2026-01-04 0.008826 0.021664 0.062060 0.250394 1.796033 46.140645 NaN
2026-01-11 0.008294 0.020750 0.061107 0.258563 2.043636 70.104142 NaN
2026-01-18 0.007818 0.019926 0.060275 0.267321 2.332248 110.168939 NaN